DANIEL SILKE
POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYST | KEYNOTE & WEBINAR SPEAKER | STRATEGIC FORESIGHT | CONTENT CREATOR |

South Africa Focus

Tipping or Turning Point: South Africa's Tough Choices in a Crucial Year Ahead

As South Africa approaches its most unpredictable national election since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the governing ANC is staring down multiple concurrent crises. These include, severe electricity blackouts, stagnating economic growth, ailing infrastructure, limited state expenditure and rising public debt. With an electoral majority no longer assured, the ANC will be under pressure to shift economic policy and ideology while attempting to safeguard and manage those increasingly frustrated by persistent unemployment and lack of opportunity. With expenditure outstripping revenue, the ability to kickstart growth through capital expansion is increasingly limited.  The next 12 months is clearly a potential tipping or turning point for the country and requires both balanced and insightful analysis. An essential conference or event keynote now open for booking.

A flagship deep-dive into both the political and economic fortunes of South Africa with prospects and insights in a crucial election year.

​

​

South Africa Focus

Coalitions, Collisions & Control: South Africa's 2024 Elections & the Battle for the Future of the Country.

In 2024, South Africa faces an historic national election which can direct the fate of the nation for years to come. For the first time since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the governing ANC is struggling to poll above 50% of the vote and is therefore not guaranteed of winning an overall majority. This presents a possible unprecedented scenario at national level of a coalition government and a critical choice between centrists, pragmatists and populists from within both the ANC and Opposition parties. The options and composition of coalition partners can be complex and may influence the direction of the country both in terms of key aspects of economic policy , the adherence to constitutionalism and stable governance. Even without a coalition, a weaker ANC majority will have its own performance dynamics. With heightened political risk amidst stormy economic headwinds and an on-going energy crisis, South Africa enters its most hazardous yet hopeful period in recent times. A forecast for the future that is not to be missed!

Insightful political predictions for the coming national elections with likely outcomes and implications for business.

​

​

International Analysis

The West & the Rest:  The BRICS, Geo-Political Risk & Economic Competiton 

The world is shifting - both economically and politically. Recent global tensions involving the relationship between the West and both Russia & China have contributed to heightened geo-political risk. Demographic changes favouring Africa alongside impressive economic growth in India and other selected emerging markets present new business opportunities and investor challenges while a more sluggish China looks to reset its growth path. The enlargement of the BRICS group of nations potentially heralds both a political and economic power shift in the world as the 'Global South' look to cement their co-operation and political clout. For the West, an era of Dollar dominance is now under threat while historic trade corridors shift to new markets. This new international political-economy keynote reflects on all these dramatic shifts and offers essential insights into navigating new 
and unchartered waters. In an era where certainty is scarce and complexity abounds, these essential insights serve as a guide for business seeking to adapt and prosper within this evolving paradigm.

Explore the shifting geo-political and economic landscape providing valuable insights into risk-related issues relevant to business.

Travel, Aviation  & Hospitality Focus

The Global Economy and its current Impact on the Travel & Hospitality Sector

Designed to focus specifically on the prevailing trends in the Travel, Aviation and Hospitality sector, this keynote is part of Daniel Silke's new "Global Impact" series that aims to provide a meaningful and relevant macro-economic overview of current global conditions and assess the impact on the relevant sector. 

​

With the pandemic now in the back mirror, the travel sector has enjoyed a boom period partially as a result of 'revenge travel'. However rising international interest rates and travel-related inflation look set to slow exuberance. The keynote provides and international economic context to trends, themes and shift in the board travel sector.

A more 'bespoke' keynote offering which combines current economic data with industry specific issues and provides an ideal macro backdrop for further conference discussion and analysis. May be customised within the South African or global context.

Private Client Briefings

In Discussion With...

Personal Briefings/Q&A 

Although most presentations are more formal and are based on supporting PowerPoint slides, many clients prefer a more personal discussion-type format either as part of a panel discussion or direct briefing. These can be also be achieved virtually using all major online platforms such as Zoom, Teams, Cisco Webex, Skype or via a telephonic link. Interactive Q&A sessions are highly productive and allow for in-depth analysis and discussion. Multi-participant panels also add dynamism to an event and retain audience interest. Dissecting issues via discussion remains a highly compelling format for virtual events.

​

A more personal and informal option in which the moderator can illicit highly relevant responses.

South Africa/Global Focus

South Africa & the World: International & Domestic Challenges facing the Nation

Since the pandemic, South Africa's economic recovery has underperformed its peers as a power crisis and policy stagnation stymies growth. However, South Africa is not an island unto herself. There are numerous global factors that are influencing our financial well-being. Rapidly rising US interest rates and the USD$ alongside stubborn inflation poses a risk across the world. Rising debt levels will constrain many developing economies while geo-political fragmentation and shifting global power place pressures on foreign policy goals - of which the Russia/Ukraine invasion plays its part. Commodity prices have been strong but softer Chinese growth can offset this. The critical question is whether South Africa's political leadership can make courageous moves to revive the economy amidst both international volatility and rising internal political conflict as Election 2024 looms large.

An always-fresh global macro economic and political overview providing the international context for South African economic challenges.

Global Focus

MegaTrends 2030:  Political, Economic, Social & Technological Themes to Shape the Next Decade.

Profound political, economic, social and technological change have all been transformational features of the world for decades. Today, these big themes are clearly evident affecting business strategy, investments and the future of humanity at an increasingly rapid pace. The world is moving towards political fragmentation as new groupings of countries exert their economic clout. Demographics are transforming Africa to be the world's youngest continent while ageing populations in the West and China require enhanced state assistance. Technology and AI are causing new ethical and security dilemmas alongside immense potential while climate change challenges weigh on sustainability outcomes and migration challenges. With the developing world urbanising at record rates, health resources remain critical to human well-being while new battlegrounds over rare-earth minerals emerge. Don't miss this all new 2023 revisit of the expected MegaTrends for the near future - as compelling and entertaining as ever! 

​

Entertaining and Insightful macro-trend & theme analysis ideal for any event requiring a 'helicopter' or 'futurist'  overview and suitable for all audiences.

​

​

Africa Focus

Affirming Africa: 
Opportunities & Obstacles in an era of Geopolitical Risk

Africa has experienced robust growth rates and has increasingly integrated into the global economy over the past decade. However, there are new challenges, including rising geopolitical tensions which are expected to exert pressure on policymakers across the continent. Concerns such as escalating debt, inflation, interest rates, currency volatility, climate change, and a renewed interest in Africa by competing global powers have the potential to destabilise regions and strain societies. Effectively managing these issues will require pragmatic leadership and a strong political will to implement the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement, which stands as a crucial pillar for the African Union. In the face of heightened geopolitical and economic competition, the near future presents both uncertainty and abundant opportunities. Factors such as demographics, urbanisation, cross-border connectivity, and an abundance of critical minerals and key resources have captured global interest and investment. Join us on this captivating and essential journey as we explore the current state of the continent.

​

A flagship macro-overview of Sub-Saharan Africa offering essential economic, political and social trend insights.

Consumer & Retail Focus

The Global Economy and its Impact on the Consumer & Retail Space.

Designed to focus specifically on the prevailing trends in the Consumer and Retail sector, this keynote is part of Daniel Silke's new "Global Impact" series that aims to provide a meaningful and relevant macro-economic overview of current global conditions and assess the impact on the relevant sector. 

​

Consumers are under pressure. Rising inflation has dampened spending patterns forcing retail to react and reassess. With interest rates still high and utility charges on the rise, shoppers are tightening their belts - with the exception of a healthy luxury sector. But, consumer demand is shifting - and its markets like India and Vietnam likely to set a new agenda as China struggles to gain traction.

​

A more 'bespoke' keynote offering which combines current economic data with industry specific issues and provides an ideal macro backdrop for further conference discussion and analysis. May be customised within the South African or global context.

University, College & Corporate

Short-Courses on Topical Political Economy issues

Daniel Silke has presented numerous short-courses or semester programs at Universities in the United States. The presentations are extended versions of his topical political economy keynotes and have focussed on issues as diverse as South Africa, Africa and Globalisation. Increasingly, business schools and colleges are seeking out experts for a series of presentations that go beyond a single keynote and allow for greater discussion and interaction. With corporate education an increasingly popular - and essential - aspect of continuous learning, the topicality of this material is ideal for this option.

​

A detailed focus on topical issues allowing for deeper analysis in a series format.

South Africa Focus

The State of the Nation:
Can South Africa find its 
'On-Switch'?

South Africa confronts numerous concurrent crises, With global growth still subdued alongside persistent inflation and high interest rates, it's the electricity crisis that really depresses domestic GDP figures which remain disappointingly low. Silke fearlessly acknowledges the challenging road ahead for the country, grappling with policy indecision, policing inadequacies implementation inefficiencies and the urgent need to reforming struggling state-owned enterprises. This keynote therefore provides an overview of the latest economic data and projections for the near future as both Government and the business sector seek new ways to stabilise ailing services prior to a crucial national election looming in 2024. Silke's keynote offers essential insights into the promise and pitfalls that lie ahead as the country moves towards the polls.

A comprehensive analysis of the current economic and political state of South Africa offering an expert prognosis on the prospects for stability and progress.

Global Focus

The New World Dis(Order): Recognising & Responding to Rising Political and
Economic Risk.

The world is today grappling with a multitude of geo-political risks that have far-reaching consequences for business. The Russian invasion of Ukraine alongside tensions between the USA and China only serve to amplify the prevailing atmosphere of uncertainty and fragmentation, as geopolitical power struggles draw in all nations. The ripple effects of this rivalry are increasingly seeping into the realm of business, finance and trade, further complicating matters as globalisation gives way to regionalisation and friend-shoring. Geo-political influence, economic warfare, sanctions, critical supply chain constraints and protectionism are all already having an impact. Factors such as inflation, interest rates, debt, currency and foreign relations have become increasingly vulnerable to these uncertainties. In addition, the impact of climate change, demographic shifts, rapid urbanisation and new technologies create challenges and opportunities. It is therefore essential to identify the core risk factors as part of comprehensive planning strategies for the future.

An invaluable platform to identify explore Global Risk and the strategic choices necessary for a variety of businesses to survive in a challenging environment

​

Special Event Analysis Q1 2024

South Africa: State of the Nation and Budget 2024: Special Event Keynotes

Coming only a few weeks after the South African  President's State of the Nation (SONA) address which is likely to kickstart the 2024 national election campaign, Finance Minister, Enoch Godongwana, has a tough task in presenting a budget in a critical election year. The country's lacklustre economic growth continues to result in high unemployment, rising debt, social unrest and inflationary/rate pressures. With an ailing economy and the ANC staring down its closest election result ever, a balance has to be struck between more proactive growth policies alongside critical social spending as voters become more mobilised ahead of national polls. And, the vexed issues of managing the ailing state owned enterprises, holding the state wage bill in-check and keeping a shrinking tax base compliant are tough hurdles indeed as the ANC faces its toughest election yet.

​

Choose from an essential analysis of the South African Budget or the State of the Nation Address and its economic and political implications for kickstarting the domestic economy and the ANC's own election fortunes. Ideal for corporate events in the first quarter of 2024.

Customisable Keynotes

Create your own Keynote! Bespoke keynotes for industries or regions

Haven't found your ideal topic from Daniel Silke's extensive menu of choices? Then consult with Daniel to combine elements of a variety of his themes or choose specific areas of interest to your business or customer.  Daniel is able to undertake specific research and include modules within his keynotes that may more accurately fit your requirements. Daniel is also open to working with your public affairs or research teams to put together a targeted presentation integrating his own unique style with an in-house message or component.

​

Consult with Daniel to provide your conference, event or team with a bespoke presentation exploring both macro-environmental aspects and core business components. 

​

​

Travel/Cruise Enrichment

Presentations for the Travel & Cruise-Line Industry

Part of the joys of travel is learning. Enrichment programs are now offered by cruise lines, luxury railway operators and even destination services companies. Daniel Silke offers an expert selection of geographically themed presentations designed to augment touring both in South Africa, on-coastal voyages globally and for international travel companies. Silke has lectured for Crystal Cruise Lines, Cunard, Silversea, Regent Cruises and Abercrombie & Kent.

​

​

Destination learning is an increasingly important part of travel. Contemporary analysis provides memorable added insights for visitors.